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Trying to Beat Jerry -- Week 1 2011

Matt posted on Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 8:59 AM
    Trying to Beat Jerry -- Week 1 2011

    Last Season: Some quick bookkeeping for both those who played last season and for newcomers so you can realize just how tough it is to take me down. I closed strongly with 12-4 records both straight up and against the spread in Week 17 of the 2010 season. That gave me a straight-up record of 160-96 (62.5 percent and perfect 10-6 weekly average). And that closing effort was just enough to put me over .500 against the jelly at 124-122-10. Hey, it's a winning record, OK?

    Now, just so you know, it's going to be tougher this year as I guarantee to do better. Still think you can take me down? Give it your best shot.
 
    (Thursday) New Orleans at Green Bay -- Cheeseheads favored by 4 -- Since the NFL began having its champion host these Thursday-night openers, they are 8-0. That, my friends, is significant. However, for the gamblers out there, the champs have not covered the last two years -- and Saints QB Drew Brees is 30-18 ATS as a 'dog. Where else are you gonna get stuff like this?
    Jerry says: 'Heads but just by 1.
 
    Detroit at Tampa Bay -- Yucs favored by 2 -- Yes, I understand that Matthew Stafford has done nothing when it counts and that the Lions' route of New England didn't count. Having said that, the Yucs could not stop the run last year and have a rookie MLB this year. As for the Yucs offense, say hello to Ndamukong Suh. At the time I'm writing, the Yucs were still favored but that may not be true by Sunday.
    Jerry says: In an "Upset Special," Lions by 9.
 
    Tennessee at Jacksonville -- Gags favored by 3 -- It could be called "a bad sign" when a team cuts its starting QB 5 days before the season starts. Right now there are football fans in Los Angeles starting a "We Don't Want Them!" petition to counter the "Go Ahead And Take 'Em!" petition in Jacksonville -- a city that wants its anonymousness back. And for those who need stats to back up the obvious, the Gags are 4-11 as home favorites since 2008.
    Jerry says: In another "Upset Special," Titans by 10.
 
    Atlanta at Chicago -- Falcons favored by 3 -- I've changed my mind a dozen times on this one. If the Falcons continue with their no-huddle attack, they could throw for a ton of yards if their tackles can block. As for the Bears, nobody blocks there. It's a tradition. Feels like a trap game because nobody is more disrespected than the Bears and their detested QB. So I was taking the Bears to just a moment ago when I realized that I can't stand Jay Cutler either.
    Jerry says: Falcons by 5 (but I'll probably change my mind again in 30 seconds.)
 
    Buffalo at Kansas City -- Chiefs favored by 6 -- If Chiefs QB Matt Cassel can't play due to cracked ribs, we get out chance to see the legendary Tyler Palko. Tyler, Tyler, he's our man. Yeah, right.
    Jerry says: In another easy-sounding "Upset Special," Bills by 3.
 
    Indianapolis at Houston -- Texans favored by 8.5 -- "Do not forsake us, Peyton Manning." So sings his Fantasy Football owners who are in mourning before the season starts. Beware this game. Colts will really want to defend their honor while Houston could be flat. Texans also apparently are divided on using RB Arian Foster against that awful Colts run D. I really don't think Texans will cover the inflated number but will they manage to win straight up?
    Jerry says: Texans but by just 4.
 
    Philadelphia at St. Louis -- Eagles favored by 5 -- This game could tell us a lot about two NFC divisional races. Both teams have major problems in their offensive lines so neither team is something to dream about. Eagles look better overall but may be looking ahead at Falcons and Giants. Should be close regardless of winner.
    Jerry says: In a real Upset Special, Lambs by 2.
 
    Pittsburgh at Baltimore -- Ravens favored by 3 -- AFC Game of the Week. The educated among you (i.e. the ones who read my prediction for every team's 2011 record) know I see the Ravens posting a 14-2 mark and winning the Super Bowl. This is what's known as "a leap of faith," because the Ravens don't block well and have had little time to jell because of the summer-long lockout. And QB Joe Flaco is 0-6 against Big Ben. However, Steelers face the "Super Bowl Loser" curse as the Big Losers are 3-14 ATS in their openers the following year.
    Jerry says: Quote the Ravens, win by 4.
 
    Cincinnati at Cleveland -- Browns favored by 6.5 -- OK, just clear the area. There's nothing to see here.
    Jerry says: Browns by 20.
 
    Seattle at San Francisco -- Niners favored by 5 -- See "Cincinnati at Cleveland."
    Jerry says: Niners but just by 1.
 
    Carolina at Arizona -- Cards favored by  7 -- Sure, this game sucks, too. But the QBs are interesting as both have got to be big improvements over the guys "running" these offenses last year. And neither team can stop the run, so that should be good news for DeAngelo Williams and Chris Wells. Cards are at home but ask yourself this: Should they be a TD favorite over UCF, much less any NFL team?
    Jerry says: Cards but just by 3.
 
    Minnesota at San Diego -- Chargers favored by 8.5 -- Viking DL Kevin Williams is suspended, so that's Charger QB Philip Rivers that's dancing in the streets. Incidentally, I always forget that Rivers spells his first name with just one "L," so I hate him for that. But he may well lead the league in passing this year, starting right here.
    Jerry says: Chargers by 21.
 
    East Rutherford Giants at Washington -- Giants favored by 3 -- Psssttt, keep this to yourself, OK? It sounds crazy but I'm going to say it anyway: "Rex Grossman looks really good." Really. And here's another thought: "Eli Manning looks more doubtful than his brother." Not talking about Eli's health but his skill set. He doesn't look like he has a skill set anymore. I'm just sayin'.
    Jerry says: In a Crazy Sounding Upset Special: Native Americans by 5.
 
    Dallas at East Rutherford Jets -- Jets favored by 4.5 -- "Battle of the Big Brothers." Got to like Rob, the Dallas assistant brother, over Rex, the Jets head brother. Rob certainly is the crazier one. Both teams have major blocking problems but Cowboys have far more talent in other areas.
    Jerry says: In one more Upset Special, Cowboys by 6.
 
    (Monday) New England at Miami -- Patsies favored by 7 -- Hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah. ......... Wow, I just love a good laugh.
    Jerry says: Patsies by 24.
 
    (Monday) Oakland at Denver -- Broncos favored by 3 -- A chance to catch a glimpse on Tim Tebow changing water into wine on the Bronco sidelines, thereby enriching our lives. What? Oh, the game? That's not what's important here.
    Jerry says: Whatever Tim says.
    Wait, kidding.
    Jerry says: Broncos by 8.
 
    There we go, my friends. If you haven't already made your Week 1 picks, do it right now. We've got a long season ahead of us.
Posted in: Beat Jerry
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