If you believe nothing changes in the NFL, consider Sunday's annual showdown between the Indianapolis Colts (0-11) and the New England Patriots (8-3). Even when we knew Peyton Manning probably could not play this season, we never dreamed the Colts could fall this far.

 

Consider this: The FOX affiliate in Fort Wayne had dropped the game to show Chicago at Oakland. I would not have thought that possible.

 

Then there's this anonymous comment that's floating around the 'Net: "Peyton Manning coaching Curtis Painter is like asking a symphony orchestra to cover Black Eyed Peas." BTW, have you seen Curtis Painter? He really looks like one -- a painter. Not a quarterback. Never a quarterback.

 

 

Last Week: Started great Sunday then fell apart for a 9-7 effort (109-67 for season) straight up. Did have a great 11-5 effort against the spread (77-72-7 for season) but who cares about that? However, I got Thursday's game right, so I'm perfect so far...

 

Tennessee (6-5) at Buffalo (5-6) -- Bills favored by 1.5 -- Bills have given up an average of 33.5 points per game in dropping last 4 while Titans is using its "jumbo" formation of massing linemen to clear the way for Chris Johnson. Sure, it will be cold but why should Bills be favored?

    Jerry says: In a Jumbo-Mambo Upset Special, Titans by 10.

 

Kansas City (4-7) at Chicago (7-4) -- Bears favored by 7 -- Meanwhile, in Chiefs' 4 straight losses, they have scored just 25 including ONE TD in last 45 possessions. Bears don't need a QB to win this one.

    Jerry says: Bears by 14.

 

Baltimore (8-3) at Cleveland (4-7) -- Ravens favored by 6.5 -- Danger, Will Robinson! Ravens' 3 losses are to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle -- and all on the road.

    Jerry says: Ravens but just by 4.

 

Atlanta (7-4) at Houston (8-3) -- Falcons favored by 2.5 -- Who really knows? Texans are starting a third-string rookie QB nobody knows (T.J. Yates if you must know) but still have that great running game and solid defense. Falcons do not really have a quality win.

    Jerry says: (Flip a coin) Heads -- Falcons but just by 1.

 

Oakland (7-4) at Miami (3-8) -- Fish favored by 3 -- There are so-called media experts who picked the Fish and called it an upset because they assumed the Raiders must be favored. But the Raiders traveled cross-country for a 1 p.m. Eastern (10 a.m. on the Left Coast) kickoff and Miami played hard in well in last week's loss at Dallas.

    Jerry says: Fishheads by 5.

 

Cincinnati (7-4) at Pittsburgh (8-3) -- Steelers favored by 6.5 -- Look, I like the Bengals. Jay Gruden is there and I like him. But look at the teams they have beaten: Cleveland, Buffalo, Jacksonville, Indy, Seattle, Tennessee and Cleveland again. They have lost to Denver, San Francisco, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. You get my drift?

    Jerry says: Steelers by 10.

 

Carolina (3-8) at Tampa Bay (4-7) -- Yucs favored by 2.5 -- Remember when Yucs were 4-2 and you were acting like they were good? Told you so.

    Jerry says: In a Cam-Newton Upset Special, Panthers by 8.

 

East Rutherford Jets (6-5) at Washington (4-7) -- Jets favored by 3 -- There may actually be an effective runner in this game. No, not Rex Grossman. How about Native American rookie RB Roy Helu? Like Quasimodo, I've got a hunch.

    Jerry says: In a Run-Helu-Run Upset Special, NA's by 6.

 

Indianapolis (0-11) at New England (8-3) -- Patriots favored by 20.5 -- Seriously, what is there to say?

    Jerry says: Patriots by merciful 28.

 

Denver (6-5) at Minnesota (2-9) -- Vikings favored by 1.5 -- OK, here's you Tim Tebow pick-me-up for the week: "This is a special team when you have a bunch of guys that when things aren't going good we get closer instead of pulling apart. The No. 1 reason we are like that is because we believe in each other, we believe in the coaching staff."

    Jerry says: In a We-Believe (In the Denver Defense) Upset Special, Broncos by 3.

 

Dallas (7-4) at Arizona (4-7) -- Cowboys favored by 4.5 -- Got to say this for the Cardinal D -- it's consistent. It can't stop the run and it can't stop the pass. -- Bada bing. Thank you, thank you, I'll be here all week. Try the veal.

    Jerry says: Cowboys by 7.

 

Green Bay (11-0) at East Rutherford Giants (6-5) -- Cheeseheads favored by 6 -- Packers have had 10 days off, Giants 5. So I thought about picking the Giants 'cause how cool would that look if I was right? Then I thought about making a Lotto pick and figured I had a better chance at that.

    Jerry says: 'Heads by 11.

 

St. Louis (2-9) at San Francisco (9-2) -- Niners favored by 13.5 -- Can you visualize a way the Lambs score more than once? Neither can I.

    Jerry says: Niners by 19.

 

Detroit (7-4) at New Orleans (8-3) -- Sunday night -- Saints favored by 9 -- If you look at the stats, this game is closer than it feels. But you go with your gut, right? And I've got one of those.

    Jerry says: Saints but just by 6.

 

San Diego (4-7) at Jacksonville (3-8) -- DisChargers favored by 3 -- One team has fired its coach and one team should have fired its coach. But none of that matters. What matters is this: Did DisCharger kicker Nick Novak remember to go before the game?

    Jerry says: DisChargers by 8 in a pi**er.

 

There you have it. Get your "Beat Jerry" picks in and enjoy your NFL Sunday.

 

Tebow.